Crop Report = Mango Confusion
Sometimes a report lacking information tells all
I’ve reported countless times over the past many years about how climate change has made everything wildly unpredictable. So, am I surprised by how erratic and confusing things are in the orchards right now? Not at all. I often use the word unravel when it comes to my Crop Reports and piecing together information from so many points along the supply chain and trying to lay it out in one clear, cohesive line. But in recent weeks, I’ve found myself more perplexed than ever. Many of the people I speak with are too—some hesitant to share insights because so much has already been wrong. As someone who thrives on patterns, I see one emerging: uncertainty is abundant, but the fruit is not.
Do I believe the fruit will be abundant? Yes—kind of. We should see a peak in Oaxaca, more fruit becoming available in Chiapas, and several other regions coming into play all relatively soon. There will definitely be of abundance, but also gaps. The orchards have demonstrated a lack of readiness that has caused issues since we started and is still causing issues.
Original predictions suggested that this week would bring ample fruit and that all southern packhouses would be open by now. Neither of those things are true, and pricing up and down the supply chain reflects that. The gaps and delays in fruit readiness are what confuse me the most. And since all my information comes from others, I suspect it’s just as confusing for them. But again, this follows the same pattern of unpredictability I’ve been reporting on—except now, it seems to be getting worse.
That said, gaps don’t always translate to shortages in the market—it really depends on how smartly sales channels distribute the fruit. But that, in turn, relies on the flow of information, which has been increasingly choppy. Hence my need to report on the confusion, I think it helps.
Ultimately, what happens next will depend on how the overlaps between micro-regions, larger regions, and seasonal transitions play out. Timing is everything, and right now, it’s anything but predictable—which might just be the most valuable takeaway from today’s crop report.
Will we see a continuous, predictable flow of mangoes? That’s still unclear, especially given the unprecedented demand for both organic and conventional mangoes these days. What is true is that many are speaking about challenges over the next two weeks. That seems to be as far ahead as we can predict with any accuracy—at least today. And it seems like a good thing to report.
I spoke with three people today, a few even wishing to remain anonymous (don’t we all when it comes to predictions?), who said they are hearing about gaps in supply over the next two weeks. And this is coming from the conventional side of the industry, which often provides a broader picture of overall supply. It aligns with what I’m seeing, hearing, and sensing as well. But mostly, people are quiet—even my own side is rather quiet. Quiet in mangoes usually means not knowing.
Ataulfos seem to be more sporadic in supply than Tommys, but the fact that round mango conventional pricing is creeping up close to our organic pricing leads me to believe that gaps are expected across the industry for all fruit in the coming weeks. Beyond that two-week window, I keep hearing the same refrain—ample supply is coming. And as more orchards come online and the remaining packhouses open, that does seem likely.
For now, I’m just lining things up truck by truck, making it work—and I think a lot of us are, at least those willing to be honest about the uncertainty. I’ll keep pushing for more details, but for now, I wanted to report on what little I do know.
Multiple Mixed Timed Blooms & Mixed Maturity
There have been widespread reports of Mexican mangoes with mixed maturity on the market, causing chaos in gauging readiness. Right now, in Oaxaca, many trees have a mix of green and ripe fruit, making it difficult to assess a clear harvest timeline. I was reminded today that erratic weather during blooming and fruit set—temperatures swinging unpredictably between hot and cold—led to scattered, mixed-timed blooms. No predictability, no patterns. And now, we’re seeing the result: trees producing fruit at vastly different stages—some too green, some ripe, and little in between.
Extra Sensitivity to Cold
Fruit at both immature and mature stages is particularly sensitive to cold, which means the current crop is especially vulnerable. It’s no secret that I strongly advocate for the industry to implement stricter practices around proper handling temperatures—especially from the orchard to the border and the border to distribution centers and within distribution centers themselves, where conditions are the easiest to control.
Normally, this time of year, you’ll hear me (often loudly) preaching about Ataulfos and their extreme sensitivity to cold. But lately, I’ve been noticing signs of cold stress in Tommy Atkins as well. I see it in Ataulfos for sure but I believe that Tommy’s seem to appear more cold-damaged than normal—I can see it in the lackluster skin tone and the diminished vibrancy of the flesh.
Another factor to consider: there’s a lot of water in the mangoes coming from the south this season due to heavy rains during blooming and development, combined with those fluctuating temperatures I spoke of. Fruit that experiences excess water during development often becomes more sensitive to cold, making it more prone to cold damage. Increased turgor pressure within the fruit’s tissues heightens susceptibility to chilling injury, leading to faster breakdown. Mangoes harvested either immediately after heavy rainfall or with high water content are particularly vulnerable to chilling injury. We should all be careful, knowing this.
Tariffs & April Rain(ing of Mangoes)
Depending on who you ask, April is now predicted to be the month when the rain of mangoes begins. But opinions on just how much fruit is coming remain mixed. Looking back at the last two years, the reality never quite matched the boldest predictions. Climate change and its effects continue to make forecasting difficult, even for the best of us.
Sometimes I wonder—do we manifest the idea of a wall of mangoes for the greater good of the industry? Economic factors are always at play, and with some of the longest sustained high prices for this time of year, the word ample tends to make people nervous. We all know prices must drop to move large volumes. Sometimes, there’s an effort to steer prices downward. And yes, we want lower prices. But we should also want growers to receive a fair price.
Orchard prices remain extremely high, putting pressure on everyone, especially if the expected volumes do materialize. Turning register prices in any direction isn’t easy. On the flip side, unpredictability is the only certainty—and nothing feels more unpredictable right now than tariffs. I wrote about this last week, and it’s got everyone on edge, scrambling to mitigate potential losses, especially with the combination of high supplies and tightening consumer spending. So not sure which we need to be more afraid of. If April indeed brings the mango rain ( either excess volumes or tariffs), it may also bring a storm of greater challenges.
Northern Regions Blooming
In other more stable news, the northern regions are blooming, which means that, at this moment, the entire country of Mexico is experiencing mango blooms—WOW. In every part of Mexico mango trees are in flower. That alone brings a sense of hope. I love the symbolism of millions of blooms, even as I remind myself of the reality: less than 1% of all mango blossoms actually turn into fruit.
The expectation (whatever that means these days) is that Nayarit will start production by mid-May. But who really knows? Mid-May has become the new normal, consistently missing that once-reliable Cinco de Mayo supply spike year after year. So many variables are at play, and I don’t have clear details yet. The whole tariff situation threw off a lot of my usual research time—LOL.
Specialty Mangoes Coming Early?
There’s another assumption floating around, though it’s still too early to call for certain: the Crespo Organic Mango Queen specialty mangoes, which typically dominate the market from late May through mid-July with Summer Mango Mania, seem to be gearing up earlier this year. If that holds true, we could start seeing them by mid-May.
