Mango Market Bumps Ahead
Mexican mango demand surge begins amidst constricted supplies, price hikes loom
We’re accustomed to bumpy starts to the Mexican mango season on the organic side, as organic Peruvian volumes tend to disappear much faster than conventional mangoes. The arrival of Ataulfo mangoes from Mexico is always met with excitement during this period of scarcity. Given the organic demographic’s strong support for Ataulfos, they tend to be a hot commodity early in the season—which is particularly helpful as Mexican round mango volumes usually start off sluggishly. The current market remains pretty consistent to typical onset seasons, outside the higher orchard prices and we will continue to need to take advantage of the Ataulfo’s popularity as while Tommy Atkins volumes continue their ramp up amidst surging demand and added pressure from the conventional market as Peru winds down.
The current CROP REPORT indicates upcoming market turbulence, requiring sharp foresight and long-term program strategies that account for the full season.
Ataulfo volumes are becoming steadier each week. Costs are expected to rise slightly due to the conventional market shift, but our programs remain stable. We’re building volume, participating in ads (big and small), and continuing to strengthen our robust programs—pleasing consumers with both flavor and size. Organic shoppers have taken a particular liking to the larger 12/14 count sizes, which the orchards are currently producing in abundance, thanks to ample rains late last year and into the new one. Volume is expected to continue growing, and flavor will get even sweeter. Large sizes will dominate, but small sizes remain available, ensuring smooth sailing overall. Pricing should soon stabilize and is predicted to “normalize” by early to mid-March.
The first arrivals of Tommy Atkins weren’t enough to meet demand, but they provided some relief, especially with Peruvian fruit still lingering due to late container ship arrivals. Generally speaking, things have been holding steady—until now. The real challenge is beginning. More Tommy Atkins mangoes are ripening in the orchards, but with the Peruvian transition in full swing, demand is now outpacing supply. The round mango market is in for a bumpy ride.
Prices are rising at the orchard level and will inevitably climb throughout the supply chain. Increased pressure from the conventional demand, will push hard on our organic side. Mexican supply will be tight for all round mangoes conventional and organic, but we remain committed to our existing programs, working to maintain as much price stability as possible. A significant volume of mangoes is on the horizon, our focus remains on building and sustaining strong programs for the long Mexican season.
Generally speaking, fruit is still on the larger side and is expected to stay that way through the southern regions. Some micro-regions in Chiapas may offer a reprieve with more normal sizing, but overall, big mangoes will dominate for the time being.
As I mentioned at the start of the season, patience will be key. Especially for the next several weeks as we move through the looming challenges.
